Sell Prudential before Earnings Received Jaded

PRU has me thinking about the danger of debt verses cash flow. How stable is a company's cash flow? What could cut it off? How constricting are debt payments as a portion of cash flow?

For instance Time Warner with reoccurring Network revenue supplying 60% of earnings has its debt paid by 50% of earnings. There is no way they can miss a payment. Or so it would seem. TimeWarner has 30 billion in debt and its market capital is also 30 billion. Prudential holds 30 billion in debt but its market capital isn't even half that, at 14 billion. With that much debt it's a worthy question, what is Prudential's cash flow? Prudential holds only 30% of its assets in mortgages or bonds, generating 8.5 billion in cash and premiums that are paid monthly or yearly totally 11 billion in 2008. Premium income can fall by scared investors taking early withdrawals, as it did in 2004 falling by almost 10%. Earnings in 2008 was 1.4 billion, and 14 billion of prudential earnings are due in 5 years. Of course in 2007, Prudentials earnings record was 3 billion and everyone believed they could pay 14 billion of debt off in five years. Of course this 14 billion will have to be refinanced, but by whom, and at what cost?

Prudential's cash flow is opaque, more than 50% of it in "other assets", more worrisome, still, is that executives could wait so long to disclose their earnings for Other Class assets. Most of these are the worrisome Asset Backed Securities. So likely management does not understand the risks in these assets, either. What is the cash flow they currently deliver? Maybe little to none?

At the end of 2008, TimeWarner made about 3 billion. In five years it has 3 billion in debt due.

Prudential will pay down that debt for which they will need new debt at higher interest. This will constrict future earnings growth by larger and large factors over the next few years, even while mortgages continue to deteriorate, and no one will buy their still undeclared ABS's.

Prudential may well "profit" the most from mark-to-market shenanegans because of their large paper holdings. But will the People still be buying?

Second Bottoming

While bottoms have not been established yet, stocks have been moving sideways more or less since dropping off to well below where I anticipated they would land. It seems there remains a probably next leg down as the consumer market has yet to disintegrate to the degree likely.

Companies were using securities as cash, and as these securities stopped supporting their cash value and companies that used the dividends generated by these papers suddenly couldn't pay employee salaries anymore, massive layoffs are ensuing. Bankruptcies are rising, but the next phase of the crisis may be the underestimated consumer falloff in spending and increased debt delinquency. This I expect to hit Wells Fargo ($20), pushing their stock down to a level that a purchase is in order. I think anything below $20 is fair.

Other stocks I recommend now are NYX ($20) and Petrobas ($18).

Betting on Oil?

I am buying this stock because the world needs a lot of oil now, and they make a simple device to look under the ocean for where to drill for oil. They are an old company, but looking under the ocean has only become popular recently because oil is so expensive. America is starting to look in new places, so in China, and Brazil has found a huge amount off its coast. If oil stays expensive companies (and countries) all over the world will keep looking under the ocean for new oil because there isn't much more on land.

This company BOLT is very small, only 60 million revenue, 15 million profit, so if one of their leaders dies, the company could have a big problem, but they could also grow with the underwater oil industry. I think the 10-k makes it very clear and honest how their company runs. All companies should have 10-k's like this, but most don't; so their 10-k is like a good book on what a good company should be.

I don't think you should buy just yet because bad news is still coming. Stock markets are crazy, but the economic growth will keep slowing down awhile, and that should push the market down. Next there will be bad news all over the world. Everyone has lost a lot of money, even your country. Lucky your country has a lot of money in the bank :), but soon there will be much less demand for everything people make in China. Americans have stopped buying everything. Europeans, too. Unless the young Chinese people start buying all that stuff you make, your country's economy will just stop growing suddenly as factories have to slow down or stop. If that happens, then your government can spend its savings to make jobs, maybe build roads, or soccer stadiums in every city - they will have to make cheap work that employs lots of people. It also depends who wins the presidency here... So save your money to go shopping there in six months when the economy needs it more.

pailout

The fundamental assumption behind this plan is most curious. Some maintain that the ultimate loss may not exceed $250B – it is therefore to be believed that this amount is causing the havoc in the financial markets and the risk to economic growth. This should be viewed in context of the identifiable net tangible and financial assets of the US economy which include $32.4T of non-financial debt ($51T total debt), $19.4T of public equities value, $11.1T of net real estate value, $7T of foreign-owned assets producing domestic GDP, plus trillions more in public infrastructure, private company equity and net tangible assets; etc. which together with human capital generate our $14.4T annual GDP.

Is it plausible that less than .36% truly bad assets in relation to identifiable total financial and net tangible assets is causing the jeopardy we face? Or, is the impaired and rapidly becoming impaired human and capital asset base far larger than this; and so, poses a lethal danger to real growth?

July begins with a bang

Leading into this earnings season we have the fifth or the third biggest bank ever gobbled up by the FDIC after a run on its funds. The leading government mandated mortgage bankers that last recession we saw old and ingrown declaring themselves insolvent getting sold off. All ahead of the earnings period, when lack of disclosure becomes fraud. Last quarter was Bear, next quarter? Everything else is still looking worse. Housing did not bottom as it seemed it might have last month. Unemployment continues to grow. Inflation is growing, and a global slowdown appears on its way, with open discussions of Europe's coming recession now. The Shanghai market is as if last years fantastic rally never occurred. The thought that occurs to me, however is that the market's now are fairly valued for business as usual, which it is not, is it?

Vingina wolf starts to the lighthouse writing of those cursed presently by whatever news of the future they behold.

June's slide into July

Waiting for the next round of US consumer banks to report a rise in credit card and other loan defaults, may take the market months; news of the entire market in derivatives seizing up like so many smaller markets have failed over the past year is interesting. This is cut throat, and people want to survive. The degree to which a U.S. "consumer" is struggling will dictate advertising, investment, production purchases, raises and expansion. With consumer sentiment at now a 16 year low, and CNN reporting the worst June since the great depression - whatever that means - the chances of a major selloff are mounting with the market skirting bear territory. Goldman Sachs has made their first embarassing move, revaluing U.S. stocks lower just weeks after issuing market performs, admitting they made a mistake: now Goldman reports that bank losses will mount into 2009, as a second batch of resetting mortgages move to higher rates in July, pushing a new set into bankrupcy, and undermining a new set of interest bearing securities held in the billions by mostly banks and a some other large investors. It is de ja vu all over again from what happened last year.

The financial headlines make inflation and energy out to be the number one issues. Food comes close behind. Gas and milk is over $4 a gallon. U.S. federal bank rate cuts are seen by the street as impossible and a weak economy may induce conservative investors into selling for this reason alone. Citigroup is now indicating it may have further losses (of course, as they still are not solvent), so it is a third quarter of losses? Securities insurer MBIA announced over $7 billion in insurance payments this month on failed insured derivatives. Another round of payments for MBIA might be coming. Housing is sending mixed signals, prices plateau and then sink again, and there are indicators foreclosures are creating supply overloads, so as buying picks up price may still decline more.

China who sells 16% of its exports to the US, has announced it will increase fuel prices 16%, which, if it doesn't slow all consumption, may push inflation even higher. India having already announced cutbacks in fuel subsidies to accomplish similar ends, sees dilutory debt pressures on its currency deflating its stockmarket and fueling inflation, making some wonder if India will play the game France once did of inflating its currency to repay creditors. Europe assumes it will raise interest rates, and the Fed and the US Treasury are discussing the matter of a fall raising which must worry markets. Along with five months of declines in U.S. employment and rising delinquencies in all types of "loans", the jittery Olympics are here in a month, and may well see the market crossing the nadir I've waited for. Wallets ready.

The US economy cannot quickly recover, but if it is true the supply and demand have been met in the purchases of homes, then a significant indicator now has visibility which will reach a second climax in fear going into the fall when July mortgage resets hit the market in the form of nonpayment and foreclosure. So long as we continue to see the bottom of mortgage and consumer wealth deflation, a bottom riding price lets us plan for the future, and by october it is indeed time to buy. Of course we should but before the headlines reveal AMD cut jobs for a reason. Already in the news, semiconductor shipments are down. When the Olympics come, will no one stage an event?

There may be the opportunity to cheaply buy companies poised to profit from medium-term BRIC growth and their own business ability in a stable economy. Now everything is unsure, but profits will maintain through the sheer momentum of building project alone in many of these nations. India has no notable infrastructure plans, but China definitely does. KLAC ($35 buy), who has a price going down is very well positioned for the up-cycle in chip development that may be out as far as 2010 now, and GS ($178) who has just bought a $7 billion SIV from Cheyenne who was also not diluted like the other banks but can benefit from the low rates. On the domestic front I like the long term dividend of depressed WellsFargo, WFC ($19 buy) who is buying banks and investing again - i see this as a bet on the competitiveness of the american business model. WAG ($34) is another long term drug dispensary now out of favor. Even with the ongoing downturn in the economy, customers cannot stop taking their medications. Which brings us to medical...

Obama is said to be receiving large amounts from Wallstreet, as well as in the future's market. If Hillary or Obama reignite the health care debate, there could be further fall-off and ample opportunity to purchase UNH,WLP, or HUM, which have already fallen significantly due to healthcare uncertainty; Warren Buffet's purchase of UNH and WLP shows confidence in the long term growth of this medical service industry, which is a concern. Defense stocks are dangerous with Obama likely winning the presidency (how long has it been since a democrat could write that), and an interesting medical stock to consider is hip and knee replacement... And finally, midterm, new energy stocks would politically and popularlly possibly rally, like ACPW ($1.3).

Clouding up for Consumer Recession

A consumer driven recession is arriving in conjunction with broad based price increases, a weakening dollar, job-losses, stock and property price declines, a lack of credit from banks, and high consumer debt levels. Like an attack from multiple angles, this will take out of the box navigating. GE, a bellwether for the world economy missed its earnings. Semi-conductor manufacturers have begun large layoffs in a year they are supposed to begin investing –worrisome. The only sectors in the US economy that added jobs were health-care and education. Also, corporate defaulted debt sales increase, suggesting banking problems have spread to companies at large, and it was with good reason companies stopped trading debt six months ago. UK home prices recorded their largest drop since 1992, showing housing trouble on the shores of Europe. The UK consumer, like the US consumer, has a lot of debt, which means UK may follow US more closely than other nations. Both the US and the UK are cutting FED rates. The Euro, meanwhile will not cut rates because of record inflation, however inflation now is a global event, especially food inflation. Slowing down Europe may not help this. Commodities are at all time high prices. And the US dollar is diluted adding to inflation and weakening any action the US government could take. So house prices and stocks will go down while everything else gets more expensive. People have less cash as prices go up. So people will stop spending, and ultimately, the economy is based on people. So a consumer recession is the worst even if it is a pride filled slow progression.

2QBank earnings are still not all in, but no one has had good news. Some suggested we will be in a downturn for the next year. Many announced still more large sales of debt to prove they are at the federally mandated level of loan/loss. It seems as though nvestors feel that they will not go bankrupt. Morgan Stanley reported that the financial downturn will last well into 2009, but they also claimed to be making record profits on trading. I believe a sell-off should be evident shortly simply because the situation is getting worse, not better. The new lows to come, however, will be a time to buy, but it might be a protracted struggling affair.

But what to buy? Most industries finally tie into consumer spending, so getting out of highs like YUM are a no brainer. If a consumer driven recession sets in everything from clothing to electronics, from airplanes to commodities will go down too, however. The US government doesn't have much money left to spend on defense. Maybe health: medical expenses are mostly covered by insurance, and they are not always what one needs, but often health is least related to pleasure. Adding to health-care's upside potential, stocks here have been depressed since the dot-com bubble. Especially if Hillary does not get the nomination, health-care stocks could become a safe repository for cash. And they could be hit with speculative inflows. Especially in the rich world, a large swath of baby-boomers are retiring now.