Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Second Bottoming

While bottoms have not been established yet, stocks have been moving sideways more or less since dropping off to well below where I anticipated they would land. It seems there remains a probably next leg down as the consumer market has yet to disintegrate to the degree likely.

Companies were using securities as cash, and as these securities stopped supporting their cash value and companies that used the dividends generated by these papers suddenly couldn't pay employee salaries anymore, massive layoffs are ensuing. Bankruptcies are rising, but the next phase of the crisis may be the underestimated consumer falloff in spending and increased debt delinquency. This I expect to hit Wells Fargo ($20), pushing their stock down to a level that a purchase is in order. I think anything below $20 is fair.

Other stocks I recommend now are NYX ($20) and Petrobas ($18).